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Announcing some great news for our premium members

Rick's Research notched a top 10 finish among all the newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial digest in 2010.

(Top Ten Letters of 2010, Peter Brimelow, Marketwatch, December 27, 2010).

Here are investment newsletter sample reports for all 3 of our newsletter products

currinTECHNOLOGY
Rick's Research
currinBIOTECH.

We hope these materials give you a good idea of the no nonsense approach we take to the investment newsletters. 

 



  

2007:  The Year Mobile Media Goes Mainstream



currinTechnology Team

 

1/14/2007

 

As we move to the latter part of the first decade of the new century we believe technology looks to fulfill what up to now has been a minimally realized dream.  That dream is to fulfill the content potential of the internet and telecommunications infrastructure.  More simply the next few years represent the opportunity for companies poised to give consumers what they want (when and wherever they want it) and to profit immensely from the digital media revolution.

 

Considering all of the cool gadgets that have been unveiled over the past few weeks, one could be forgiven for forgetting that we are merely half way through the first month of the year.  Nevertheless, the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) and MacWorld represent two of the most important annual events in consumer electronics so it realistic to look at the overall driving functions on display at each and the resulting dynamics that will drive technology trends in 2007 and beyond.  In examining some of the most buzz worthy announcements of the past week, one common theme emerged that trumped all others:  Converged-Mobile media.

 

What You Want, When You Want It

 

It would be a mistake to fall into the techno-utopian trap that the content giants fearful of losing control of content distribution are losing their resolve, but there is undoubtedly a thawing on the part of the old guard as they scramble to deal with the runaway successes of online properties like iTunes, MySpace and YouTube.  As a result, they are becoming increasingly willing to open their vaults to new opportunities online, despite the ever-present fears of piracy and loss of control.  And even if they are not fully ready to embrace the insecurity of digital media freedom by clenching to consumer punishing algorithms or dismally inadequate content protection schemes, they will have little choice in the end as the combination of technology solutions and readily available storage capacity place the consumer into the driver's seat.  Technology solutions that will allow consumers to move their content at will are beginning to flourish.

 

While we may still be a long way from the absolute free exchange of content and ideas envisioned by some of the web's earliest prognosticators, it is, nevertheless, an important pragmatic step towards a new era where the individual can choose when, where and through what medium he or she wishes to consume and communicate information.

 

As the content giants often forget it is expanded access to their treasures that creates a virtuous cycle of demand for more.  The cassette tape boosted music sales though the content giants feared it would lessen them.  The DVD rental boosted theatre movie going, though the content giants thought it would lessen it.  It is no accident that the internet giants EBay and Google snapped up the up and coming Skype and YouTube.  Each company presented an early lead toward a network effect for voice, video and media convergence.  Media (including personal media) is a cultural phenomenon restricted at the peril of those savvy enough to seek to see it proliferate --profitably.

 

We believe the demand for media is nowhere close to the point of saturation as consumers of MP3 music have demonstrated.  Such insatiable consumer appetite for media, both old and new, when combined with the converged technologies of mobility will put strains on the delivery systems.  Both the internet and the cellular network will find the demands of mobile media pushing infrastructure upgrades to enhance consumer experience.

 

We believe the explosion of digital media (especially video) is poised to couple infrastructure and consumer demand to the benefit of the right players in the tech sector.

 

Filling Out the Ecosystem

 

iPhone  (Apple, AAPL $94.62)

 

CES may be the largest electronics show in the world but, this year, the title of most buzz worthy announcement undoubtedly came from MacWorld where Apple CEO finally unveiled the long rumored iPhone.  The collective gasp from the tech world was not so much for the surprise of the announcement (since it was so widely expected) but rather that what was unveiled did, in fact, manage to live up to near impossible expectations.  In a market teaming with innovation and competition, Apple has created a truly remarkable product.  Its initial "wow" factor may soon dissipate but the aftershocks will be felt for a long time as the existing industry titans like Nokia and Motorola begin reacting to this new benchmark of style, elegance and functionality.

 

Apple certainly faces many hurdles in transforming the iPhone from pleasant eye candy into a mass market phenomenon but given its numerous past successes in the face of long odds, we would be hesitant to bet against them.  Still Apple can only make so many of these things and others will quickly copy the concept.  Obviously the price is higher than most existing comparables and much of the innovative design is unproven (such as the acceptability of a touch screen phone) but so was the iPod when it was first released.  Apple excels in not only creating elegant hardware interfaces but also in creating elegant software interfaces for organizing information or connecting to other devices.

 

The combination of iTunes and the iPod provided a significant advantage to Apple during the early days of the mobile music wars by providing the only complete ecosystem capable of appealing to the mass market consumer.  But it is not lost on us, having played with all sorts of MP3 players and music services, that Apple ITunes actually works more seamlessly than its competition.  If the company can duplicate this success in the video arena and with the mobile Internet through the iPhone then it could truly disrupt the world of mobile communications.  The iPhone and its sure to come "me-too" offspring could represent the first truly converged mobile devices for a variety of computing, communicating and media playing.

 

(Note: Recognizing the actual tipping point in the move to Mobile Digital Multimedia was the most powerful investment reality you could have had as a tech investor.  It's enough to make our investment newsletter members say "what financial crisis?"  But our insights on the bottom of the financial crisis were also worth much to investors.)

 

"When I look at the great returns I have been able to get following your stock picks I shake my head and say What Financial Crisis?!  ...Hat tip for a great product."

 

G. Bostic, Chicago

 

You should recall the market bottom as having occurred in early March 2009.  Recognizing that early March date as a market bottom would have also served you well.

 

Our March 19th Report, Banks, Bottoms, Bailouts, Building and Buying was on point in that regard.

  

Bottoms and Bailouts

 

When looking for a potential market bottoming rally it's good to look for volume.  The rally certainly had sufficient volume to inspire us that there was institutional buying taking place in addition to short covering.  This is important because short covering has a nasty way of simply repeating the process as shorts re-establish positions in bear market rallies.  The shorts were scurrying as the volume picked up and haven't yet wrestled the rally back with bearishness.

 

The reason institutional support is important is because many institutions will take long positions.  That makes it harder to shake out investments made at these low levels in the market regardless of near term volatility.  In essence this institutional support becomes one of the elements of a support level for stocks. While calling bottoms in a market like this is probably an overrated art form (i.e. with so many people calling them many will eventually be right), the presence of institutional support in the recent rally gives fundamental support to the recent lows for the long haul.

 

...on bailouts

 

If ever there was a politically bad word for government taking action to support financial markets it's the term bailout.  The word itself has become a joke as you may have recently seen a spate of commercials capitalizing on the term.  Everyone from Domino's Pizza to local car dealers is using the phrase as a marketing pitch.  The appeal is that the companies are doing something for you (the little guy) versus the government doing something for the big guys on Wall Street.  To make matters worse, revelations of the levels of irresponsibility that companies receiving bailout (more properly TARP) funds received have been at best embarrassing and at worse fundamentally wrong.  This has helped create a sense of overall distrust among individual investors.  Of course when individual investors as a whole get sour on the market that's probably the best anecdotal evidence of a market bottom you can have.

 

After losing lots of money in their investment and retirement accounts investors switch to cash and bonds position so late in the cycle that it really gives them nothing more than peace of mind as opposed to an opportunity to recover their losses.  While peace of mind is not something we would call aggressive investing, it does bode well for the market that investors that should perhaps be more aggressively positioned are waiting for a clear signal of a market moving higher.  That cash on the sidelines will provide sustainable fuel for the market to continue climbing once it begins to convincingly be seen heading in the right direction.

 

(Note: While we are not market timers, the extraordinary conditions of the financial crisis market decline certainly warranted us making a bottom call in the market.  We are gratified to have identified the bottom as it happened as well as the fundamental underpinnings that led us to that conclusion.)

 

 

 



  

  

More Signs of a Growing STAR

 

Rick Currin

 

10/6/09

 

We are waiting for a significant catalyst to propel Starent even higher.  We believe that catalyst could be occurring from China.  However, during the wait the stock remains healthy and growing. 

 

Unlike many technology companies that have made 2009 earnings respectable by slashing expenses (i.e. by laying off employees), Starent has blown through 2008 levels with increased revenues. 

 

Starent revealed some tangible evidence of a growing operation as it dramatically increased its office space in the Boston area.  More expenses are likely on the way.  However this is also a strong sign that the company is confident that additional revenues will absorb the expense. 

 

Verizon recently announced a strong collaboration with Google's Android for mobile phones.  What this means to us is that the bar of smartphones is getting lower.  In other words the days that every phone will be internet capable on the mobile operator's networks are growing closer.  This Verizon move is good news for Starent as Android phones means internet phones.  For Verizon: more internet phones means more Starent gear.

 

Shares of Starent are up on the Verizon/Android news reaching an intraday 52 week high.

 

(Note: Rick's Research portfolio stock Starent was acquired by Cisco delivering a nice takeover premium to our members holding shares.)

 

  

Atheros: 21 Raises and the three Bears

 

Analysts following Atheros were forced to raise estimates on the company.  21 out of the 21 analysts that follow the company did so.

 

What does that really mean?  Other than catching everyone underestimating the company, not that much really as Atheros raised guidance.

 

 

 

Secular Growth in Wireless (Broadcom, Atheros, Qualcomm)

 

10/6/09

 

There is going to be a continuation of the general trend to connect anything and everything wirelessly. 

 

Sometimes the simplest premise is the best.  We liked these three players in the wireless chip space to benefit from secular growth in wireless technology in all manner of devices. 

 

Handheld gaming (check)

Digital Cameras (check)

Music Players (check)

Internet enabled Phones (check)

Netbooks (check)

 

Both Broadcom and Atheros are doing well in the secular sense.  That is, their entire range of market applications is expanding.  The economic slowdown however dampened some level of this trend.  A major element is the PC space and that was very slow for most all of the last 12 months.  That is beginning to change as the trend meets up with a new price point..."the netbook".

 

Atheros is benefitting from the 802.11 wireless standards.  These standards define wireless technology common to mobile devices and internet hotspots.  Just as Intel has made some ground in a new category of "sub" PC so too has Atheros.  That's because the key element of these netbook devices is connectivity not compute horsepower.      

 

We view the wireless and mobile internet areas as extremely interconnected.  Consumers are being treated to a wide array of wireless capabilities whether they are Wi-Fi or 3G.  Atheros, Qualcomm, Broadcom are all located in the mix of technologies that are flourishing in an increasing wireless world.

 

Birds of a Feather?

 

While the three players may be birds of a feather in a very general wireless technology sense, they are very different as companies and market focus.  Compared to Qualcomm ($71B), Broadcom is a mid cap at $14B.  And compared to Broadcom and Qualcomm, Atheros is a small cap at $1.6B.

 

It is interesting to look at both the volatility and share price growth in these names over the last 5 years.  As opposed to the birds of a feather analogy think the 3 Bears.

 

Description: http://216.119.124.58/images/5yqcom.GIF

Source: Yahoo charts

 

The much larger Qualcomm has not really budged in 5 years but has been less volatile by comparison. The middle sized Broadcom has grown 50% over the period but has been more volatile.  The small cap Atheros has grown the most (170%) and yet has been the most volatile. 

 

 

In a secular growth story the inclusion of somewhat more volatile mid and small cap growth stocks can add a lot of return spice in "room to grow" markets like wireless. 

 

(Note: Rick's Research portfolio stock Atheros was acquired by Qualcomm delivering a nice takeover premium to our investment newsletter members holding shares.)

 

 

 



 

 

While we like to show the long term focus in our sample reports for Rick's Research and currinTechnology, that's tougher to demonstrate with currin BIOTECH as it was only launched in August of 2010.  Despite its relatively young age the investment newsletter is off to a great start.

 

We believe our identification of secular growth themes on display in the currinTechnology letter is appropriate as an example of what we do here as well.  That's why we use the free report


as an example of the investment focus of the newsletter.  Click the link to down load the report.  The focus on display in the report has paid off handsomely so far.

 

Our two currinBIOTECH flagship portfolios are off to a great start.  Below is the actual performance of the stocks in these 2 portfolios.  (Through 4/27/2011).

 

Each of the biotech stocks in the cell signaling and cancer stem portfolio is up substantially.  Here is the full list of actual performance to date.

 






 

In addition to the biotech stocks we feature in that portfolio we feature personalized medicine stocks in the personalized medicine portfolio.  You'll understand why when you read the free report.  But a better reason is found simply by looking at the hot biotech stock performance you'd be getting from the personalized medicine portfolio.

 





 

We think you can see why adding currin BIOTECH stocks to the power package of investment newsletters of our more established letters is likely a good way to go. 

 

We are very excited to bring successful and powerful investment information to our members and our members are very happy as well.

 

"I do enjoy reading your writings, but more importantly I enjoy the profits I have had so far.  I have all eleven of your recommendations in your biotech portfolio.  My annualized return is 64.57%... 




 I am very, very satisfied with your stock selections." 




Bob George, Ohio

 

 

There is no substitute for performance in this business.  If there is a close second we'd have to say it is vision.  We are happy to say we have been delivering both.

 

We look forward to you becoming a member of our investment newsletter products.

 




 

Feel free to call for additional information.



 

Rick Currin

 

Executive Editor

 

currinBIOTECH newsletter products